Outlook of paper industry in 2006 (I)
1 In 2006, the oversupply of pulp production intensified.
there was no significant increase in international pulp prices in 2005, which was mainly affected by the opening of new production capacity in South America and China and the weakening of China's pulp import strength. If the data of global future new production capacity were used to estimate, the growth rate of global pulp supply in 2006 would be 4.7% higher than that in 2005, and the increased production capacity would be between 2-2.5 million tons, As the growth of global pulp demand gradually slows down, it is estimated that it will only grow by 1.5% in 2006, so the phenomenon of oversupply of pulp in 2006 is more obvious, and pulp prices may face the pressure of falling prices even in the peak season. Current SLA, MJP and CJP customers can avoid obtaining their licenses free of charge. The quotation of domestic pulp mills, China paper and Taiwan paper, fluctuates with the international pulp price. Therefore, it is expected that the increase in pulp price in 2006 will be significantly lower than that in 2005
2. In 2006, domestic paper mills had limited ability to raise prices
the rise in domestic paper prices mainly depended on the strength of economic growth. Although major domestic paper mills had been interested in increasing the quotation of industrial paper and stationery paper in 2005, the actual data of economic growth rate in 2005 was slightly lower than the expectations of domestic professional institutions, so the plan of paper price rise could not be implemented, Although yongfengyu, a big manufacturer, announced a 10% increase in the price of industrial paper and stationery paper in November, the industry said that the current price increase was mainly a reflection of the unrealized increase in 2004 in response to the rising cost. If the current domestic inventory of paper products is at a high level and the performance characteristics of papermaking into a common universal material experimental machine are analyzed, compared with the same period in 2004, the domestic brand prices of various types of paper will not be increased in 2006, Paper mills have limited ability to raise prices
3. In 2006, the import volume of China's pulp, paper and paperboard was flat.
observing the changes in the import volume of China's pulp, unformed paper and paperboard in the first September of 2005, it was found that the import volume of pulp was 5.3 million tons, an increase of only 4% over the same period in 2004. In addition to the obvious suppression of speculative buying after macro-control, the opening of the capacity of large pulp mills in China is also another main reason. Therefore, it is estimated that the import volume of China's pulp in 2005 will reach 683 tons, For the first time, negative growth occurred. After Hainan big pulp mill was launched with full capacity in 2006, the estimated pulp import volume in 2006 was the same as that in 2005; In addition, in terms of unformed paper and paperboard, the import volume of unformed paper and paperboard in 2005 also showed a negative growth for the first time due to the continuous investment of large paper factories by international and domestic manufacturers. It is estimated that the import volume in 2005 was 5.55 million tons, a decline of 6.7% compared with that in 2004. It is estimated that the import volume in 2006 was 5.585 million tons, only a small growth of 0.6%
4. The profit growth of related companies in 2006 was limited
from the observation of 2005, due to the fact that the rise of pulp prices and paper prices was not as expected, and the operating costs did not significantly reduce, the gross profit margin of major domestic pulp and paper mills fell significantly, and the profits of the industry declined, while the non industry earnings of each company were not as rich as those in 2004. Therefore, the overall profits of paper mills such as Zhenglong and yongfengyu were not as good as expected, Only relying on the divestment of Indonesia's reinvestment stocks, Huaping paper's profits have increased significantly. However, based on the current industrial situation, it is speculated that the profits of paper related companies will not increase in 2006 when the pulp price trend is weak and the domestic paper price is not easy to rise. At present, only Zhenglong's profit in 2006 can be significantly increased due to the reduction of losses in the reinvestment of zhonglong factory. For example, the profit of yongfengyu will only grow slightly, and the profit of China paper will decline significantly. Therefore, in terms of reinvestment suggestions, only Zhenglong has the space to bargain hunting
I. It is estimated that the pulp production capacity will increase significantly in 2006, and the phenomenon of oversupply will intensify.
according to the data of international new pulp production capacity collected by Fubon, the total new pulp production capacity in the world from 2004 to 2007 was about 6.55 million tons, of which South America increased the most, reaching 3.55 million tons. The increased production capacity includes a million ton pulp mill in Hainan Island, China. Because the new production capacity is mainly short fiber pulp production capacity, Therefore, the impact on the price of staple fiber pulp will become more and more obvious. It is estimated that the global pulp supply in 2006 will increase from 53 million tons in 2005 to 55.5 million tons, with a supply growth rate of 4.7%. During the same period, the growth of the global pulp demand is only 1.5%, reaching 50.25 million tons. Therefore, the total oversupply of pulp in 2006 is about 5.25 million tons, higher than 3.5 million tons in 2005. If we observe from the change of pulp supply and demand rate, In 2006, the global pulp supply and demand rate was about 90.5%, lower than 93.4% in 2005 and 91.3% in 2004, close to 90% of the historical low. Due to the low supply and demand rate, it was not easy for the pulp price to rise in 2006
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