The hottest paper industry is hard to break the bl

2022-10-02
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It is difficult for the paper industry to break the curse of "black March". Paper prices turn from rise to fall

release the types of electronic universal experimental machine sensors on the market at present include S-type and spoke type date: Source: China business

entering March, the decline of paper prices is difficult to stop

according to the domestic A-level yellow paperboard price data calculated by zhuochuang information, as of March 16, the average price of domestic A-level yellow paperboard was 2065/ton, which not only reversed the increase after the Spring Festival, but also fell below the annual average price before the Spring Festival

"since March 5, the price of paper has fallen. One of the most important reasons is that the COVID-19 has spread around the world, causing the market to worry about the sharp slowdown in the demand for packaging paper. The prices of packaging base paper and waste paper have been reduced, causing market panic." Fang Juntao, waste paper analyst of zhuochuang information, told China Business Daily that the global risks are still continuing, and the paper industry is facing greater challenges. Perhaps the current market is in the darkness before dawn

the decline in paper prices continued

in mid February this year, due to the insufficient start-up of the paper industry caused by the COVID-19, paper prices ushered in a rising tide. From mid February to early March, in less than 20 days, some base paper mills have completed several rounds of price increases. Among them, the cumulative increase of some base paper mills is generally 500~600/ton, and some have even exceeded 1000/ton. After this wave of "rising prices", the price of paper has risen by 30% to 50%

"the price rise in February was mainly caused by the tight supply of raw materials and rising costs." Many people in paper enterprises told that under the epidemic, the liquidity pressure and cost of small and medium-sized enterprises are higher, and the price rise can alleviate the financial pressure and make the price rise momentum stronger

however, the rise did not break the curse of "black March" after all. Since March, the decline in paper prices has continued so far

in the evening of March 16, Nine Dragons Paper announced the second price adjustment in the month. Among them, the Hailong Niuka of Dongguan Nine Dragons decreased by 150/ton, the Dilong Niuka decreased by 250/ton, the Dilong regeneration and Jianglong regeneration decreased by 200/ton, and all core paper decreased by 200/ton. In addition, a number of small and medium-sized paper mills in South China have announced price cuts, with a maximum decrease of 250 per ton

on March 19, industrial securities analysis pointed out that in terms of packaging paper, after some small and medium-sized factories cut prices last week, Shanying paper and Liwen paper among the leading enterprises also adjusted prices one after another this week, with high market panic

"the crazy rise in the price of waste paper in the early stage is largely due to the fact that it cannot be received and delivered due to the impact of the epidemic. In addition, the logistics transportation around the country is blocked, and it is quite difficult to receive and deliver goods, resulting in a short-term shortage of raw materials." Hong Qianjin, a researcher at Zhongyan Puhua, said that with the subsequent resumption of production and the increase of production capacity, it is expected that the paper price will slowly cool down and the industry will return to rationality

Fang Juntao believes that the decline in paper prices since March 5 is related to the global spread of the COVID-19. In his view, the epidemic has triggered concerns about a sharp slowdown in the market demand for wrapping paper

"recently, the Federal Reserve reduced the interest rate to close to 0, the bad news in the financial market has come out, and the panic has been greatly released. On the contrary, the panic decline in the waste paper market is also a clearing of prices." Fang Juntao said

the performance of paper enterprises generally declined

the paper price "fell endlessly", and the performance of paper enterprises is not optimistic

on March 5, Liwen paper disclosed that its 2019 annual report showed that its total revenue and net profit decreased. Among them, the total revenue decreased by 15.7% year-on-year to HK $27.144 billion, and the net profit decreased by 32.4% to HK $3.3 billion. Most of the time, the gross profit margin of rats is likely to fall from 23.3% to 18.8%

after the disclosure of the above financial statements, Citigroup rated conditioned paper as "sold". It also said that the company's performance last year was 9% lower than the forecast and neglected the overall improvement of the functional characteristics of local products. The gross profit of carton board paper was dragged down by the import tariffs and weak demand of the United States, while household paper was affected by the fierce competition in online channels, and its performance was lower than expected

in fact, in addition to Liwen paper, the performance of other paper industry leaders also generally declined. For example, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Nine Dragons Paper in 2019 was 3.860 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 50.82%; According to the 2019 annual performance forecast of Shanying paper, its net profit was 1.442 billion to 1.762 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 45% to 55%

Shanying paper said that in the fourth quarter of 2019, the company's domestic corrugated box board business had a good momentum, and the sales price and gross profit margin were higher than those in the third quarter. However, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate at the end of the year, the fluctuation of the stock price of the joint-stock companies, and the downtime and technological transformation of its subsidiary Nordic paper in the fourth quarter had a certain negative impact on the performance of the fourth quarter

"at present, due to overcapacity in China's paper and paper products industry, coupled with increased market competition and weak downstream demand, the profits of paper enterprises have further declined." Hong Qianjin, a researcher at Sinochem Puhua, said that the change in the import waste paper policy has led to a sharp decline in the amount of imported waste paper and an increase in the cost of raw materials for domestic enterprises

Hong Qianjin believes that China's paper production and consumption will continue to grow, but the growth rate is less than the GDP growth rate; Thanks to purchasing and emerging logistics, packaging paper is the main driving force for the growth of China's paper production and consumption; Overseas investment of Chinese enterprises will continue to increase; High quality products will continue to occupy the market of low-quality products, and high-end paper will occupy the market of low-end paper

"under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for sanitary products such as household paper and wet wipes (some containing alcohol) with cleaning and disinfection effects has increased. In addition, the longer time at home has further promoted the increase of household paper consumption." Hong Qianjin said that in terms of packaging paper, household appliances and electronics, daily necessities, clothing, shoes and hats, and express logistics are the main downstream consumer industries. The overall consumption of daily necessities is estimated to be relatively stable. Even if the consumption has declined recently due to the epidemic, there will be room for follow-up. The demand for home appliances, electronics, clothing, shoes and hats may be restrained in the short term, but it has the characteristics of rebound after the end of the epidemic, and the overall consumption is expected to change little. In terms of express logistics, in the short term, due to the superposition of epidemic factors during the Spring Festival, the express delivery volume decreased significantly, affecting the short-term demand for corrugated box board

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