The hottest paper industry pays attention to the l

Papermaking industry: pay attention to the leading enterprises in the sub industry with high visibility, and the output growth rate of the industry has fallen, and the revenue and profit have maintained rapid growth. In 2007, the cumulative output of machine-made paper and paperboard of paper-making enterprises above the national scale was 56.8874 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 16.90%, which was significantly lower than the 22.5% in the same period of last year. The industry revenue and profit maintained a rapid growth. In 2007, the cumulative sales revenue of the paper industry was 233.679 billion yuan, an increase of 21.49% over the same period last year; The accumulated profit was 12.453 billion yuan, an increase of 40% year-on-year

the export of paper products increased significantly, the import decreased, and the import of pulp still increased. In 2007, the cumulative export volume of paper and paperboard in China was 3.02 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 44.8%. The cumulative import volume of paper and paperboard was 3.11 million tons, ranking first in all kinds of packaging materials year-on-year, with a decrease of 7%. The cumulative import volume of pulp was 6.42 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5%. The cumulative import amount was $4.118 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.50%. Due to the continuous rise of international pulp prices, the increase of pulp import amount is much higher than that of import volume

raw material price trend: maintain a high level during the year. From the perspective of pulp price trend, in October, the price of broad-leaved pulp in the European market rose again to 523.77 euros/ton after a slight decline in September, and the price of coniferous pulp was 580.91 euros/ton, still at a high level. After falling back in the second quarter of this year, meizao No. 8 is on the rise again, and the current quotation has exceeded $190/ton. It is expected that the international wood pulp and waste paper prices will remain high during the year,

product price trend: the main paper types are on the rise. The price of white card reached 7050 yuan/ton in October, breaking through the high level of 7000 yuan/ton, indicating the high prosperity of the white clip industry. The price of coated paper remained at 4700 yuan/ton for three consecutive months, while that of coated paper fell below 3000 yuan/ton in October

the papermaking sector experienced substantial adjustments. In October 2007, the paper sector experienced a significant adjustment. As of October 26, the paper industry index fell by 22.06%, while the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.33% in the same period. On the one hand, it was due to the large increase in the early stage, and on the other hand, it was due to the unsatisfactory quarterly reports of listed companies

maintain the neutral rating of the industry. According to the published three quarterly reports of listed companies, the general decline in gross profit level shows that listed companies are subject to rising raw material prices, greater cost pressure, and their performance is lower than market expectations. At the same time, as some listed companies issue additional shares to raise funds for new projects, the expansion of share capital will have a dilutive effect on performance. We maintain our industry neutral rating

focus on leading enterprises in sub industries with high prosperity. This is of great significance to alleviate the energy crisis. We suggest paying attention to high-quality leading enterprises with expected performance growth, high prosperity in their sub industries and valuation advantages. The price of white cardboard has exceeded 7000 yuan/ton to 7050 yuan/ton in October, and the prosperity of the sub industry is high. According to the quarterly report of sun paper, a large-scale and technologically advantageous enterprise of white card, the net profit of the company increased by 46.63% in the third quarter. In the first three quarters, the net profit was 246million, with a year-on-year increase of 28.45%, and the earnings per share was 0.68 yuan. The performance growth was in line with our expectations. We could not maintain 07. Whether it was transferring load, maintaining fiber orientation or maintaining the integrity of materials, we could not do without the profit forecasts of 0.94 yuan and 1.31 yuan of resin matrix in 2008, The dynamic P/E ratio of the company in 2007 and 2008 is 29 times and 20 times respectively, which is recommended to be paid attention to

analysis of the recent operation situation of the paper industry

the output growth rate of the industry fell back. In September, 2007, the machine-made paper and paperboard of paper-making enterprises above the national scale were 6.989 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 20.70%. The monthly cumulative output was 56.8874 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 16.90%. The growth rate was significantly lower than that of 22.5% in the same period of the previous year. Since the compound annual growth rate of domestic paper consumption in the past three years is 11.15%, the corresponding slowdown in output growth is beneficial to improving market supply and demand and easing competition

exports increased significantly and imports decreased. In September 2007, the export volume of China's paper and paperboard was 420000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 31.25%, and the export amount was 318 million US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 41.37%; In June, the cumulative export volume was 3.02 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 44.8%, and the cumulative export amount was $2.264 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 46%, continuing to maintain a high-speed growth trend. In September 2007, the import volume of paper and paperboard in China was 330000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.16%, and the import amount was US $286million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.41%; The monthly cumulative import volume was 3.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, and the cumulative import amount was US $2.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The continuous decline of import volume is conducive to domestic enterprises to occupy more domestic market share, while the substantial growth of exports will find a release for domestic production capacity

raw material price trend: maintain a high level during the year. From the perspective of pulp price trend, in October, the price of broad-leaved pulp in the European market rose again to 523.77 euros/ton after a slight decline in September, and the price of coniferous pulp was 580.91 euros/ton, still at a high level. After falling back in the second quarter of this year, meizao No. 8 is on the rise again, and the current quotation has exceeded $190/ton. It is expected that the international wood pulp and waste paper prices will remain high during the year, and domestic enterprises will still face greater cost pressure due to the lack of pulp and dependence on imports

product price trend: the main paper types are on the rise. In 2006, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the industry made the surface of plastic parts prone to wrinkles; The decline indicates that the release pressure of industrial capacity slowed down in 2007. The pressure on the overall production capacity of the industry has slowed down, competition has slowed down, and the prices of major domestic paper varieties have increased, indicating that the market supply and demand of some products have improved, and the cost has been passed on. Paper stabilized at 4700 yuan/ton for three consecutive months; The price of coated paper is maintained at 7300 yuan/ton; Carton board fell below 3000 yuan/ton in October, and the industry expects that the price may fall as the new production capacity enters the market. It is particularly noteworthy that the price of white card exceeded 7000 yuan/ton to 7050 yuan/ton in October. It is expected that the price of white card paper will remain high and the sub industry will show a high outlook due to the growth of downstream demand and little pressure on capacity release