The hottest paper industry oversupply depresses pa

Paper industry: excessive supply depresses the price of paper (VI)

brief analysis of key companies in the industry

Huatai Co., Ltd.

is the largest leading paper enterprise in China, with an annual production capacity of 400000 tons of high-end paper. Compared with similar companies, about 11.36 PCT companies were reduced year-on-year. The company has advanced equipment, strict management, flexible mechanism and good cost control. The cost of paper per ton is about 3000 yuan, which is close to the level of foreign peers. It is the most competitive enterprise in the paper industry

by the end of 2005 and 2006, the company will have a production capacity of 400000 tons of paper respectively, and it is expected that the market share will reach about 30%, and the market position will be further strengthened; The joint venture 200000 ton SC paper project between the company and straenso is expected to be officially signed in March next year; The company's forestry pulp paper integration project has just been approved by the relevant national departments

the growth of paper demand may slow down. We believe that the reason for the sharp increase in the apparent consumption of paper in 2004 is more because the inventory of more than 200000 tons of paper mills has been transformed into social inventory, which is not equivalent to the growth of actual consumption. The impact of macro-control on the real estate industry will gradually become apparent. Real estate advertising, which accounts for the largest volume of print advertising business, will decrease, and the growth of paper consumption will slow down

the new capacity will be released in the second half of the year. We believe that the supply of paper will exceed the demand in the second half of the year, and the price of paper is expected to fall from yuan/ton to 5100 yuan/ton

the tightening of environmental protection policies in Shandong is conducive to large paper enterprises, and Huatai's cultural paper benefits greatly. After the closure of the small paper mill, the price of wheat straw, the main raw material of cultural paper, has a large callback range. At present, it is less than 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 100 yuan over the same period last year. However, the supply of cultural paper began to be tight, and the price rose

the company's share trading reform plan is 10 for 2 shares, and promises to guarantee performance growth. We believe that the plan reflects the sincerity of major shareholders in supporting the share reform, and also shows that major shareholders have full confidence in the future development of the company

we predict that the company's main revenue in 2005 is 2990 million yuan, the net profit is expected to be 319 million yuan, and the EPS is 0.106 yuan; In 2006, the main revenue was 4137 million yuan, the net profit was 431 million yuan, and the EPS was 1.435 yuan. It is recommended to buy

Chenming paper

company is a leading enterprise in the domestic paper industry. At present, it has an annual production capacity of 2.5 million tons of machine-made paper. It is one of the top 50 global papermaking companies, and its economic benefits have been the first in China for 11 consecutive years. With advanced equipment, strict management, flexible mechanism and good cost control, the company is the most competitive enterprise in China's paper industry

we believe that under the environment of the transformation of economic growth mode from extensive mode at the cost of high energy consumption and high pollution to sustainable circular economic growth mode, the process of industrial integration and survival of the fittest in the domestic paper industry is bound to accelerate. As an advantageous enterprise with the strongest comprehensive strength, negotiation ability and integration ability, Chenming paper is most likely to become the final winner of industrial integration

the company's 350000 tons of coating and processing have fallen significantly to the 100 yuan per kilogram level white paperboard project and 200000 tons of light coated paper project have been successfully put into production in the first quarter, and it is expected to start to generate benefits in the second quarter; Since 2005, the proportion of the company's self-made pulp has increased significantly, and its ability to resist risks in response to international pulp price fluctuations has been significantly strengthened. We expect the comprehensive gross profit margin of products to rise this year

the company acquired the original main fixed assets of Jilin paper industry: two 5600mm paper production lines, with an annual production capacity of 150000 tons; A 6346mm light coated paper production line is under construction, with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons; There are 5 pulp production lines with an annual production capacity of 360000 tons. After the acquisition of the above assets, Jilin Chenming Paper Co., Ltd. can form an annual production capacity of 400000 tons of machine-made paper

we expect the EPS of the company to be 0.515 yuan in 2005 and 0.714 yuan in 2006. It is recommended to buy

Yueyang paper

after the first phase of the water-saving project is put into operation in July, the cost can be saved by more than 2million yuan per month. After the second phase of the water-saving project is put into operation in March 2006, the cost can be saved by 1million yuan per month

the company has mastered a variety of processes, and can use a variety of self-made pulp to produce different kinds of paper, such as high-quality paper, light coated paper, finishing offset paper, light paper, thermal base paper and carbon free copy base paper, according to the market situation. It is expected that the company will increase the output of non paper such as light coated paper and thermal base paper in 2006 to avoid the impact of paper cycle

at present, the company still has US $45.4 million of loan principal in US dollars, and the exchange gains and losses of 9.53 million yuan will be generated after the appreciation of RMB. If the RMB continues to appreciate, there will still be a lot of exchange gains and losses in 2006

the book value of 850000 mu of fast-growing forest operated by the company is currently about 560million yuan. After entering the rotation period in 2007, only 700000 mu of fast-growing poplar can contribute 420 million yuan of income every year, the total value of timber in six years is about 1.89 billion yuan, and the discounted net income is 493.08 million yuan, equivalent to 1.83 yuan per share

the company has established a good communication channel with the carbon sequestration Committee of the State Forestry Administration, and a team led by the deputy general manager of MaoYuan forestry has applied for the establishment of a public relations project in Beijing. The 2007 conference project may surprise investors

we predict that the company will achieve a main revenue of 1817 million yuan, a net profit of 90 million yuan and an EPS of 0.333 yuan in 2005; In 2006, the main revenue was 1865.27 million yuan, and the net profit was 91 million yuan. Sine wave was used for experiment, and EPS was 0.339 yuan. According to our valuation model, our reasonable value range for the company is 4 09 yuan, and we believe that the current forestry assets of the company are undervalued by the market, so we suggest to buy

Hengfeng Paper

company is the largest cigarette paper supporting enterprise in China, with a comprehensive market share of 22%

although the market capacity of cigarette paper is limited, it is technically difficult and requires high process requirements, and the state tobacco monopoly administration implements a production license system for cigarette paper, so there are high barriers to entry and high added value of products

the growth of the company mainly comes from the import substitution of high-grade cigarette paper (including cigarette paper, high permeability filter rod paper, white tipping base paper). At present, the import substitution of high-end cigarette paper has been basically realized; The company is committed to improving the quality stability and grade of high permeability filter rod paper and printed white tipping base paper, in order to replace imported products and expand market share

the company has the exclusive domestic technology of producing high air permeability filter rod paper. At present, the production capacity is about 1000 tons. The 5000 ton inclined paper machine built with its own funds is still in the stage of commissioning and trial production. It is expected to be officially put into operation in 2006, which can increase the production and sales of high air permeability filter rod paper. In 2006, the company plans to refinance and raise funds to invest 30000 tons of special paper projects. Its main products are tipping base paper and vacuum aluminized base paper. We believe that the entry barrier of tipping paper is low, the competition is relatively fierce, and the gross profit rate is lower than the current leading products cigarette paper and filter rod paper

we expect the company to achieve a main revenue of 670 million yuan, a net profit of 775 million yuan and an EPS of 0.535 yuan in 2005; In 2006, the main revenue was 850 million yuan, the net profit was 82 million yuan, and the EPS was 0.585 yuan. According to our valuation model, our reasonable value range for the company is 5 10 yuan, it is recommended to buy

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